Progressive Economic Policies for Europe

Introduction

For several years FEPS has been collaborating with with the Economic Council of the Labour Movement – ECLM – (Copenhagen)  and the Centre for Development Policy and Research – CDPR (SOAS University of London) on projects on macro modelling strategies for Europe. CDPR has been using the Cambridge Alphametrics Model (the CAM) which has been developed by Alphametrics Ltd, Thailand, to project future trends in Europe for 2020 and 2025 on the basis of differing assumptions on basic policy directions. ECLM has been using the Heimdal model to conduct similar work and projection.

The main contrast that these projects have investigated has been between the outcomes of a policy regime that continues current austerity measures and those that result from a strategy for investment and employment-led recovery. This effort has led to a series of publications in the form of studies, policy briefs and policy viewpoints (this can be found below and in the publications page)

For 2015 the project builds on the extensive parst reseach to focus on: 

  1. The role of Nordic countries within Europe;
  2. European Alternative economic policy strategies;
  3. The role of Europe within the global economy.

Research output includes the publication of a series of briefs and viewpoints on the following broad topics:

  1. Future demographic change in Europe
  2. the Nordic Model
  3. Energy and Oil Prices and the Impact on Europe
  4. Debt Deflation and Quantitative Easing
  5. Emplyoyment and the European Labour Market
  6. Education and Inequality

The project uses two macroeconomic models:

CAM model. This programme is currently supported by the Centre for Development Policy and Research (CDPR)

HEIMDAL model, developed by the Economic Council of the Labour Movement (ECLM)


Research Team:

Lars Andersen (The Economic Council of the Labour Movement – ECLM, Director)

Erik Bjørsted (The Economic Council of the Labour Movement – ECLM, Senior Analyst)

Dr. Elva Bova (Foundation for European Progressive Studies - FEPS, Senior Economist)

Dr Giovanni Cozzi (University of Greenwich, - Senior Lecturer)

Signe Hansen (The Economic Council ofthe Labout Movement - ECLM, Senior Analyst)

Prof. Terry McKinley (Centre for Development Policy and Research, Director)

Dr Jo Michell (University of the West of England - Lecturer)


Seminars:

Progressive Policies for Growth and Employment (Copenhagen, May 2014)


Research and policy related output:

Dahl, S., Bjørsted, E., Nissen, T. Policy Viewpoint 2015. Progressive educational policies can keep unemployment low – the Danish case

Dahl, S., Bjørsted, E., Nissen, T. Policy Viewpoint 2015. Active labor market policies and low inequality go hand in hand.

Dahl, S., Bjørsted, E. Policy Brief 2015 Why are the nordic countries doing so well? 

Michell, J. (2015) Eurozone policy-makers should heed deflation warning. Economic Policy Viewpoint

Overvad, A.C. Dahl, S (2015) Is the German Labor market really performing that well? Economic Policy Viewpoint 

Michell, J. (2015) Saving the Eurozone: modeling an alternative vision of Europe. Policy Brief

Cozzi, J.; McKinley, T.; Michell J. (2015) Addressing the pressing need to reduce Global and European Imbalances. Policy Brief 

Dahl, S.; Krogsgaard Andersen A.M. (2015) Imbalances in the European Union. Policy Brief n.1

Michell, J. (2014) Eurozone faultlines have reached the core. Economic Policy Viewpoint n.11

Bjørsted, E. (2014) A larger share of people think they can’t find a job. Economic Policy Viewpoint n.7

Bjørsted, E. (2014) Every fifth low skilled worker in the work force is unemployed. Economic Policy Viewpoint n.6

Cozzi, J.; McKinley, T.; Michell J. (2014) Can Conventional Macroeconomic Policies Prevent Persistent Stagnation in the European Union? Policy Brief n.5

Michell, J. (2014) Youth unemployment figures understate the true impact of the crisis. Economic Policy Viewpoint n.5

Bjørsted, E. (2014) Youths are trapped in unemployment. Economic Policy Viewpoint N.3

Michell, J. (2014) The UK's debt-led recovery is unsustainable. Economic Policy Viewpoint No.2

Bjørsted, E. (2014) The problem of long-term unemployment, Economic Policy Viewpoint No.1

Andersen, L. and Bjørsted, (2013) The Way Out of the Crisis: An Alternative to Austerity, Policy Brief No.3

McKinley, T., Cozzi G., Mitchell, J., and Bargawi, A. (2013) How can the EU Federal Government spearhead an employment-led recovery?, Policy Brief No.1


Selected background material:

McKinley, T. Bargawi, H., Cozzi, G. and Michell, J. (forthcoming) AUGUR Final report: scenarios to 2025 - global development, demographic change and migration

McKinley, T. and Cozzi, G. (2012) Could Employment-Focused Policies Spearhead Economic Recovery in Europe? Policy Brief No. 4, Centre for Development Policy and Research

Hansen, S. (2012) Gloomier outlook for Europe, The Economic Council of the Labour Movement

ECLM (2012) ECLM Forcast Evaluation During the Crisis

McKinley, T. and Cozzi, G. (2011) Fiscal Contraction or Fiscal Expansion in the US: Which Will Promote Growth and Employment in the US? Development Viewpoint No.66, Centre for Development Policy and Research

Bargawi, H. (2011) and McKinley, T. (2011) Can Drustic Deficit Reduction Help Economic Recovery? Development Viewpoint No.60, Centre for Development Policy and Research